Cocoa Market Analysis
Quick answer
The cocoa market in 2026 is recovering from the worst shortage in decades. After a 489,000-tonne deficit in 2023/24 pushed ICE New York futures to a record US$12,931 per tonne in December 2024, world production rose 8.5% to 4.73 million tonnes in 2024/25 and the market returned to a small surplus (ICCO). Prices fell to a three-year low of about US$2,888 in February 2026, then recovered to around US$5,600 by mid-October 2026 as El Niño and smaller 2026/27 crop forecasts in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana raised supply concerns.
At a glance (October 2026)
World production 2024/25
4.73 million t, +8.5% (ICCO)
World grindings 2024/25
4.65 million t, −3.3% (ICCO)
Balance 2024/25
Surplus of about 37,000 t
Stocks-to-grindings
28.2% (26.4% in 2023/24)
Record price
US$12,931/t, ICE New York, 18 Dec 2024
2026 low
About US$2,888/t on 27 Feb 2026
Price, 12 Oct 2026
About US$5,600/t
EUDR
Applies from 30 Dec 2026 (large and medium operators)
Cocoa Prices: From Record High to Correction
Cocoa was the most volatile major commodity of 2024 and 2025. The table tracks the key price points, using ICE futures in US dollars per tonne unless stated.
Date
Price
What happened
2018–2022
About £1,749/t average (London)
The long period of low prices before the crisis
Late 2023
About US$4,200/t
Poor West African harvest begins to tighten supply
18 Dec 2024
US$12,931/t (record)
Second straight deficit; stocks at multi-decade lows
October 2025
About US$4,000–4,100/t
Better crop prospects and falling demand
27 Feb 2026
About US$2,888/t
Three-year low as surplus expectations and unsold West African stocks weigh
Late August 2026
About US$6,500/t
Rebound on El Niño risk and smaller 2026/27 crop forecasts
12 Oct 2026
About US$5,600/t
Easing on large ICE stocks ahead of Q3 grind data
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Sources: ICE/Reuters (record), ING Think (2018–22 average), Trading Economics (2026 prices), The Meridian 50 (August 2026). Prices are approximate.
What caused the spike
Weather: heavy rains, then heat and drought in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana in 2023 and 2024.
Disease and ageing trees: swollen shoot virus and black pod, on farms with many old, low-yielding trees.
Low stocks: the stocks-to-grindings ratio fell to 26.4% in 2023/24, leaving little buffer.
Thin markets: higher margin requirements cut open interest, so smaller trades moved prices more.
Why prices fell
Supply recovery: production rose 8.5% in 2024/25, led by Ecuador and a better West African crop.
Demand destruction: combined grindings in Europe, North America and Asia fell 6.7% in the first three quarters of 2025 (ING).
Speculators turned bearish: funds moved to their largest net short in London cocoa since 2021.
Rebuilding stocks: ICE-certified stocks reached a 2.25-year high of about 3.48 million bags by 30 September 2026.
What is moving prices now
Since the February 2026 low, prices have roughly doubled. The main drivers are the risk of a stronger El Niño, which usually brings drier weather to West Africa; forecasts from StoneX that Côte d'Ivoire's 2026/27 crop could fall about 11% to 1.8 million tonnes and Ghana's about 13% to 650,000 tonnes; and the recovery in Asian demand. Large exchange stocks and weak European grindings are holding prices back.
The World Supply and Demand Balance
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) measures the market by comparing production with grindings, the volume of beans processed into cocoa liquor, butter and powder. Grindings are the industry's best measure of demand.
Season (Oct–Sep)
Production
Grindings
Surplus / deficit
Stocks-to-grindings
2023/24
4.37 million t
4.81 million t
−489,000 t
26.4%
2024/25
4.73 million t (+8.5%)
4.65 million t (−3.3%)
+37,000 t
28.2% (stocks 1.31 million t)
2025/26
ICCO figures withheld
ICCO figures withheld
Surplus expected; ING forecast about +175,000 t (Dec 2025)
Stocks rebuilding
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Source: ICCO Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, August 2026; ING Think, 8 December 2025. The ICCO temporarily withheld 2025/26 production and grindings estimates in its August 2026 bulletin.
How the ICCO balance works
The ICCO deducts 1% from gross production for loss in weight before comparing it with grindings. For 2024/25: 4.733 million t × 0.99 = 4.686 million t, minus 4.649 million t of grindings, gives the surplus of about 37,000 t. The stocks-to-grindings ratio shows how many months of processing the world's stocks could cover; 28.2% is equal to roughly three and a half months.
Demand in 2026: What the Grindings Show
Regional associations publish grindings every quarter. The second quarter of 2026 showed a clear split: Asia and North America recovered while Europe stayed weak.
Region
Q2 2026 grindings
Change year on year
Reported by
Europe
316,366 t
−4.6%, the weakest second quarter in six years
European Cocoa Association (ECA)
Asia
224,646 t
+25%
Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA)
North America
109,659 t
+7.65%
National Confectioners Association (NCA)
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Data released 16 July 2026, as reported by CocoaIntel and Farmforce. Third-quarter figures are due on 15 October 2026.
Reading the numbers
Lower bean prices in early 2026 brought Asian grinders back, while European processors, the largest group, remained cautious after two years of margin pressure and recipe changes. Grindings also reflect where processing happens, not only where chocolate is eaten: Côte d'Ivoire, the Netherlands, Germany, Indonesia and Malaysia are among the biggest grinding countries. See the grinding ranking in our top cocoa producing countries guide.
Where the World's Cocoa Comes From
Africa produced about 69% of the world's cocoa in 2024/25, and Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana together almost half. Ecuador has grown fastest and now ranks third.
Country
Production 2024/25
Share of world output
Côte d'Ivoire
1,681,000 t
35.8%
Ghana
600,000 t
12.8%
Ecuador
570,000 t
12.1%
Nigeria
330,000 t
7.0%
Cameroon
310,000 t
6.6%
Africa (total)
About 3.27 million t
69.2%
Source: ICCO estimates for 2024/25. Full top-10 ranking and country profiles in our top cocoa producing countries guide.
Diversification is real but slow. Ecuador's output rose from 419,000 t to 570,000 t in one season on high-yielding CCN-51 plantings, while Ghana's harvest is still well below the more than one million tonnes it reached in 2020/21. For differences between bean types, see our guide to cocoa varieties.
Farmgate Prices and Producer Policy
In Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, governments set a guaranteed price for farmers each season and sell much of the crop forward. Their decisions shape supply, smuggling and quality.
Côte d'Ivoire, 2025/26 opening
2,800 CFA francs per kg, set at the height of world prices
Côte d'Ivoire, 2026/27 main crop
1,200 CFA francs per kg (−57%), unchanged from the reduced mid-crop price of March 2026; announced 1 September 2026
Ghana, 2026/27
GH¢42,400 per tonne (GH¢2,650 per bag), about 71% of the FOB price
Forward sales
Côte d'Ivoire's Conseil du Café-Cacao reportedly sold about 80% of the projected 2026/27 harvest forward
Large gaps between official prices and prices in neighbouring countries encourage smuggling; Ivorian estimates cited in 2026 put cross-border flows at about 100,000 t a year through Guinea and 30,000 t through Liberia. Producing countries are also pushing to grind more at origin: Côte d'Ivoire is now the world's largest grinder, and Cameroon ground a record 109,431 t in 2024/25. Nigeria, by contrast, has a liberalised market with no fixed farmgate price.
Trade and Processing: Where Cocoa Goes
Cocoa is grown in the tropics but mostly processed and eaten in Europe, North America and Asia. Beans travel to grinding hubs, where they become cocoa liquor, butter and powder for the food industry. World exports of beans and semi-finished products reached about 2.09 million tonnes (bean equivalent) in January–March 2026, 2.8% less than a year earlier (ICCO).
Largest grinding countries, 2024/25 (ICCO forecasts)
1. Côte d'Ivoire
About 730,000 t
2. Netherlands
About 580,000 t
3. Germany
About 440,000 t
4. Indonesia
About 390,000 t
5. Malaysia
About 350,000 t
6. United States
About 280,000 t
7. Brazil
About 230,000 t
8. Ghana
About 210,000 t
Source: ICCO Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. LI No. 1 (February 2025). Figures rounded.
The Netherlands, centred on Amsterdam and the Zaan region, is Europe's main cocoa port and grinding hub. Semi-finished products are traded under their own HS codes: cocoa mass (1803), cocoa butter (1804) and cocoa powder (1805). How these products are used is explained in uses of cocoa.
Regulation: The EU Deforestation Regulation and Beyond
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), Regulation (EU) 2023/1115, is the biggest regulatory change in cocoa trade for decades. It applies to cocoa beans and products such as cocoa butter, powder, paste and chocolate placed on the EU market or exported from it.
Cut-off date
Cocoa must not come from land deforested or degraded after 31 December 2020
Applies from
30 December 2026 for large and medium operators; 30 June 2027 for micro and small operators
Traceability
Geolocation of every plot where the cocoa was grown
Due diligence
Operators must collect information, assess risk and submit a due diligence statement before placing goods on the market
Penalties
Fines with a maximum of at least 4% of the operator's total annual EU turnover, plus confiscation of goods and revenues
Other rules buyers should know
Living Income Differential (LID): since the 2020/21 crop, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana add US$400 per tonne to export contracts to raise farmer incomes.
ARS 1000: the African Regional Standard for sustainable cocoa, backed by Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, covers traceability, environment and social criteria.
EU contaminant limits: maximum levels for cadmium in cocoa and chocolate products have applied since 2019. See our contaminant specification guide.
The Structural Challenges Behind the Volatility
Lower prices in 2026 have not solved the problems that caused the crisis. These six issues will shape supply for years.
1
Ageing trees
Cocoa trees yield best in their first few decades. Many West African farms carry old, low-yielding trees, and replanting costs farmers several years of income.
2
Swollen shoot virus
Cocoa swollen shoot virus has no cure; infected trees must be cut out. Industry estimates in 2024 put infection in Ghana at around 500,000 hectares, including most of the Western North region.
3
Climate and El Niño
Cocoa depends on reliable rainfall. El Niño years tend to bring drier weather to West Africa, and forecasts in October 2026 pointed to below-average rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire into early 2027.
4
Illegal mining and land loss
Illegal gold mining (galamsey) in Ghana has destroyed cocoa farmland and polluted soil and water.
5
Smuggling
Differences between fixed farmgate prices and prices across borders drive beans to neighbouring countries, distorting official production figures.
6
Farmer incomes and child labour
Most cocoa comes from smallholders on low incomes. A 2020 NORC study for the US Department of Labor estimated about 1.56 million children in child labour in cocoa growing areas of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana in 2018/19.
Outlook for 2026/27
The market enters the 2026/27 season with more stock than a year ago but a weaker crop outlook. These are the forces pulling prices in each direction.
Could push prices up
Could push prices down
A stronger El Niño and below-average rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire into early 2027
ICE-certified stocks at a 2.25-year high of about 3.48 million bags (30 Sep 2026)
StoneX forecasts of smaller 2026/27 crops: Côte d'Ivoire −11% to 1.8 Mt, Ghana −13% to 650,000 t
Weak European grindings, down 4.6% in Q2 2026
Recovering demand in Asia (+25% in Q2 2026) and North America (+7.65%)
A 2025/26 surplus and continued growth in Ecuador and other origins
Lower farmgate prices discouraging farm investment, and EUDR compliance friction
Most of Côte d'Ivoire's 2026/27 crop already sold forward
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What forecasters say
J.P. Morgan (August 2025) expected prices to stay structurally higher than before the crisis, around US$6,000 per tonne over the medium term.
ING (December 2025) expected a surplus of about 175,000 t in 2025/26 and lower prices through 2026.
Trading Economics (October 2026) model forecasts about US$5,420 per tonne by the end of the quarter and about US$4,650 in twelve months.
Forecasts are opinions, not guarantees, and were made at different times. Most analysts agree prices are unlikely to return to the pre-2023 range soon, because the structural problems in West Africa remain.
Dates to watch
15 October 2026
Third-quarter grindings for Europe, North America and Asia
October 2026 onwards
Start of the 2026/27 West African main crop and arrival figures
30 December 2026
EUDR applies to large and medium operators
Next ICCO bulletin
Possible release of 2025/26 production and grindings estimates
What It Means for Cocoa Buyers
For chocolate makers, bakeries and food manufacturers, volatility is now part of the job. These practices help manage it:
Ask for dated quotations on clear FOB or CIF terms, and know which futures month a price is based on.
Cover part of your needs forward rather than buying everything on the spot market.
Diversify origins and products: combining West African and Latin American beans, or buying cocoa mass, butter and powder separately, spreads risk.
Prepare EUDR data if your chocolate or cocoa products are sold into the EU.
Check quality on every lot: moisture, cut test, fat content and food-safety results.
Watch the grind data and West African weather, the two most reliable short-term signals.
Further Reading for Cocoa Buyers
Buying Guide
How to Buy and Import Bulk Cocoa Beans
A seven-step guide to suppliers, samples, contracts, Incoterms, documents and shipping.
Read the Guide →
Origins
Top Cocoa Producing Countries
Output, harvest seasons, regulators, ports and flavour profiles for each leading origin.
Read the Guide →
Quality
Cocoa Contaminant and Microbiological Specifications
Limits for salmonella, mycotoxins, PAHs, cadmium and moisture that buyers should check.
Read the Guide →
Varieties
Cocoa Varieties and Global Supply
Forastero, Criollo, Trinitario, Nacional and CCN-51, and where each is grown.
Read the Guide →Cocoa Products We Supply
Radad International supplies cocoa products from Africa on FOB or CIF terms, including raw cocoa nibs and the products below.
Beans
Whole Cocoa Beans
Fermented, sun-dried African beans for roasting, grinding and bean-to-bar chocolate.
View Product →
Liquor
Cocoa Mass (Cocoa Liquor)
Ground cocoa nibs in block form, the base ingredient for chocolate and coatings.
View Product →
Butter
Natural Cocoa Butter
Pressed cocoa fat for chocolate, confectionery and cosmetic formulations.
View Product →
Powder
Natural Cocoa Powder
Non-alkalized cocoa powder for baking, beverages and food manufacturing.
View Product →Frequently Asked Questions
What is the price of cocoa in 2026?
Cocoa prices in 2026 are far below the December 2024 record but still above the long-run average before the crisis. ICE New York futures peaked at about US$12,900 per tonne in December 2024, then fell through 2025 and 2026 as demand weakened and supply recovered. Check a live futures quote for today’s price, and see the price milestones table above.
Why did cocoa prices rise so much in 2023 and 2024?
Three poor harvests in a row in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, caused by heavy rain, drought linked to El Niño, swollen shoot virus, ageing trees and illegal gold mining. The ICCO recorded a deficit of nearly 500,000 tonnes in 2023/24, one of the largest on record, and stocks fell to their lowest level in decades.
Why have cocoa prices fallen since the record?
High prices reduced demand: chocolate makers cut grinding, shrank bars and used substitutes. At the same time production recovered in West Africa and grew in Ecuador and other origins, turning the deficit into a surplus and rebuilding exchange stocks.
Is there a cocoa surplus in 2026?
Yes. After three deficit seasons, the ICCO estimated a surplus for 2024/25, and analysts such as ING expected a larger surplus in 2025/26. ICE-certified stocks reached a two-year high in late 2026. See the supply and demand table.
Which country produces the most cocoa?
Côte d’Ivoire, with roughly 40% of world output, followed by Ghana, Ecuador, Cameroon and Nigeria. Africa grows about two thirds of the world’s cocoa. Read more in our guide to the top cocoa producing countries.
What are cocoa grindings and why do they matter?
Grindings measure how much cocoa is processed into liquor, butter and powder. Associations in Europe, North America and Asia publish them every quarter, and traders use them as the best available guide to demand. See the latest regional grind data.
What is the EUDR and when does it apply to cocoa?
The EU Deforestation Regulation, Regulation (EU) 2023/1115, requires companies placing cocoa and cocoa products on the EU market to prove they were not produced on land deforested after 31 December 2020, with geolocation of the farms. After postponements, it applies to large and medium operators from 30 December 2026 and to micro and small operators from 30 June 2027.
What are farmgate prices?
Farmgate prices are the minimum prices paid to farmers. In Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana they are fixed by the government for each season, by the Conseil du Café-Cacao and COCOBOD respectively, and they are usually well below world market prices. See the farmgate section.
What is the cocoa price outlook for 2027?
Forecasts differ. Larger stocks and weak European demand point lower, while a possible El Niño, smaller West African crop forecasts and recovering Asian demand point higher. Most analysts do not expect a quick return to pre-2023 prices. See the outlook section.
How can buyers manage cocoa price risk?
Ask for dated FOB or CIF quotations, cover part of your needs forward, diversify origins and products, and watch grind data and West African weather. Our guide to sourcing bulk cocoa beans covers the practical steps.
See references
- International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, August 2026.
- ICCO, Statistics: production, grindings and stocks.
- Trading Economics, Cocoa futures price and forecast, accessed October 2026.
- ING Think, Agricultural commodities outlook, December 2025.
- Reuters, Commodities coverage of cocoa futures and the December 2024 record.
- European Union, Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 on deforestation-free products, EUR-Lex.
- European Commission, Regulation on deforestation-free products: implementation.
- NORC at the University of Chicago, Assessing progress in reducing child labor in cocoa-growing areas of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, 2020.
- Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), official website.
- Conseil du Café-Cacao, official website.
- European Cocoa Association, quarterly grind statistics.
- Wikipedia, 2024 cocoa crisis (overview with primary sources).
Source From Radad
Plan Your Cocoa Purchases With Confidence
Radad International supplies cocoa beans and semi-finished cocoa products from Africa, with dated quotations, full export documents and shipment on FOB or CIF terms. Tell us your product, volume and destination port.
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One Response
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